U.S. East Coast sees signs of omicron slowdown

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Thu, 2022-01-13 09:51 — mike kraft

Omicron waves appear to slow in New York City, other major metropolitan areas The apparent slowdown in East Coast cities offers reason for cautious optimism that the turning point could be near and that the omicron variant’s U.S. trajectory is similar to that of other countries. Washington Post

The explosion of omicron cases along the Interstate 95 corridor from the Mid-Atlantic to New England is showing signs of slowing down, according to health officials and epidemiologists, offering reason for cautious optimism that the turning point could be near and that the coronavirus variant’s U.S. trajectory is similar to that of other countries.

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) said Tuesday the rates of tests returning positive and case increases seem to be slowing — particularly in New York City, which emerged as an early epicenter of the highly contagious variant.

“They’re still high, but we are not at the end, but I want to say that this is, to me, a glimmer of hope, a glimmer of hope in a time when we desperately need that,” Hochul said at a news conference.

Coronavirus levels in Boston-area wastewater are falling, a promising sign because alarmingly high levels spotted earlier presaged record infections. The Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia has seen the rate of teachers testing positive during asymptomatic weekly screening plunge from 25 percent in the week between Christmas and New Year’s to 2 percent in recent days.

Forecasters are expecting similar trends in the Mid-Atlantic, where infections have been slowing in the District and Maryland, but the ongoing strain on hospitals prompted officials to declare emergencies.

“Omicron is more like a flash flood than a wave. It goes to enormously high levels very quickly and then, based on other parts of the world, may come down very quickly,” said Tom Frieden, a former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention director and New York City health commissioner. “We know that the more people who are up to date with their vaccines, the fewer deaths there will be, the fewer hospitalizations there will be and the less economic disruption there will be.”

Experts caution these are still early data points for predicting the trajectory of a virus that has repeatedly shown to be unpredictable. It’s also too soon to declare a rapid decline in infections following the steep spikes, as was observed in South Africa and London. Cases remain alarmingly high, like a reckless driver slowing from 110 mph to 90 mph.

But there is good news.

David Rubin, who tracks national coronavirus trends for PolicyLab at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, says federal data shows a sharp decline in emergency room visits for coronavirus in the Northeast and the rest of the nation is on track to follow a similar path.

“You got a picture of an East Coast that’s rapidly improving, a Southeast that’s not far behind, a Midwest that’s maybe a week behind the East Coast while the West Coast has not yet peaked,” Rubin said. “Our assessment is we have likely peaked as a country.”

New York City is still averaging about 40,000 infections a day. While omicron appears to cause milder illness with a lower hospitalization rate, the high volume of cases hitting all at once has led to long emergency room waits and staff shortages at some hospitals. ...

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