US Covid death rates and hospitalizations among unvaccinated are as high as ever amidst declines in rest of the population

The unseen covid-19 risk for unvaccinated people With the adjustment for vaccination, the national death rate is roughly the same as it was two months ago, while the adjusted rates in several states show the pandemic is spreading as fast among the unvaccinated as it did during the winter surge. Dan Keating, Leslie Shapiro Washington Post

The country’s declining covid-19 case rates present an unrealistically optimistic perspective for half of the nation — the half that is still not vaccinated.

As more people receive vaccines, covid-19 cases are occurring mostly in the increasingly narrow slice of the unprotected population. So The Washington Post adjusted its case, death and hospitalization rates to account for that — and found that in some places, the virus continues to rage among those who haven’t received a shot.

The rosy national figures showing declining case numbers led the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to loosen mask recommendations last week and President Biden to advise people to take off their masks and smile.

But adjustments for vaccinations show the rate among susceptible, unvaccinated people is 69 percent higher than the standard figures being publicized. With that adjustment, the national death rate is roughly the same as it was two months ago and is barely inching down. The adjusted hospitalization rate is as high as it was three months ago. The case rate is still declining after the adjustment.

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In the United States, the current case rate for unvaccinated residents is similar to the case rate for all residents on April 29.

Unvaccinated people are getting the wrong message, experts said.

“They think it’s safe to take off the mask. It’s not,” said Lynn Goldman, dean of the Milken Institute School of Public Health at George Washington University. “It looks like fewer numbers, looks like it’s getting better, but it’s not necessarily better for those who aren’t vaccinated.”

States with high rates among unvaccinated people

The adjusted rates in several states show the pandemic is spreading as fast among the unvaccinated as it did during the winter surge. Maine, Colorado, Michigan and Washington state all have covid-19 case spikes among the unvaccinated, with adjusted rates about double the adjusted national rate. The adjusted rates of Minnesota, Oregon and Pennsylvania are slightly lower.  ...(charts)

When current hospitalizations are spread across only the unvaccinated population, D.C. and Michigan have rates twice as high as the adjusted national rate. Pennsylvania, Maryland, Florida and Rhode Island have rates about 50 percent higher than the national hospitalization rate. ...